Sydney Sweeney is gonna be a contender

Sydney Sweeney to Dwayne Johnson: It’s clobberin’ time. Days before the Rock arrived in Toronto for the next stop on The Smashing Machine’s successful fall festival tour, the Euphoria star demonstrated her own fighting form in Christy, which recounts the incredible true story of women’s boxing champ, Christy Martin. And just like Johnson, Sweeney now seems poised to enter the Oscar ring — especially now that Christy has a distributor, Black Bear, and a Nov. 7 release date on the books.

Directed by David Michôd, Christy had its world premiere in front of a packed house, and the audience greeted Sweeney and Martin with a standing ovation when they took the stage following the screening. “[Christy] is a special and incredible human being,” Sweeney told the real-life boxer through tears. “[Playing her] was a dream come true as an actor and as a person.”

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Martin returned the compliment, crediting the star with doing an “awesome job” acting out her story. “She got to be this totally different person that none of you expected,” Martin said. “She wasn’t the beautiful, sexy Sydney — she was the tough rugged Christy in this movie and I think it’s awesome. She kicked ass.”

The TIFF crowd clearly liked the version of Sweeney they saw in Christy; spontaneous applause broke out following several of the boxing matches. And, later on, audible gasps were heard during a sequence that depicts the shocking act of violence that almost took Martin’s life. That’s followed by Sweeney performing a dramatic scene from a hospital bed that’s a tailor-made Oscar night clip.

As a boxing movie Oscar contender, Christy has one obvious antecedent — Clint Eastwood‘s 2004 drama, Million Dollar Baby, which is actually referenced during the course of Michôd’s film. That earlier movie received 7 nominations at the 77th Academy Awards and took home four awards, including Best Actress for Hilary Swank, Best Director for Eastwood and Best Picture. And Million Dollar Baby also balanced fisticuffs with a more dramatic third act that takes place largely outside of the ring.

The key difference between the films, though, is that Baby‘s pivot is played as a surprise plot twist, whereas Christy‘s turn is rooted in the relationship between Martin and her abusive husband, James, played by Ben Foster. Michôd’s dramatization of their marriage brings to mind Star 80, Bob Fosse‘s controversial telling of Playboy model Dorothy Stratten‘s life and death. Reviews are already divided on whether Christy successfully manages to be both a boxing movie and a nuanced portrayal of domestic violence, indicating that the film may struggle to follow Million Dollar Baby into the Best Picture and Best Director races.

But acting is a different story. Here are the categories where Christy has the best chance to knock out some nominations.

Best Actress

Physical transformations go a long way with Oscar voters, and Sweeney made sure to share the secrets for how she got into fighting shape with the audience after Christy‘s world premiere. “I trained for two to three months before [shooting],” she noted, adding that a boxing coach, weight trainers and nutritionists put her through her paces. Also, she ate Chick-fil-A — a lot of Chick-fil-A. “A lot of Smuckers, a lot of milkshakes and a lot of proteins shakes,” Sweeney said. “It was incredible being able to completely embody a powerful woman.”

Beyond physical transformations, career transformations can also be a successful awards season narrative; that’s one of the notes that Johnson has been hitting as The Smashing Machine helps him move him away from big-budget action spectacles. In Sweeney’s case, Christy is arguably less of a transformation than a reaffirmation of her dramatic range — a range that’s been evident in movies and TV shows like Eden, Reality, The White Lotus and Euphoria. But this particular role does award her one of her biggest dramatic showcases to date… and she lands all the punches that matter.

While it’s early days, Gold Derby prediction data has Sweeney ranked in ninth among contenders to receive a Best Actress nomination, and her standing has been steadily climbing as the good vibes from Toronto pour in.

Best Actress

Contender

Odds

1.

Jessie Buckley

Hamnet

89.2%

2.

Cynthia Erivo

Wicked: For Good

73.4%

3.

Renate Reinsve

Sentimental Value

73.3%

4.

Rose Byrne

If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

71.6%

5.

Emma Stone

Bugonia

64.8%

6.

Julia Roberts

After the Hunt

49.7%

7.

Jennifer Lawrence

Die, My Love

23.6%

8.

Kate Hudson

Song Sung Blue

14.6%

9.

Tessa Thompson

Hedda

9.4%

10.

Emily Blunt

The Smashing Machine

5.0%

11.

Sydney Sweeney

Christy

1.9%

12.

June Squibb

Eleanor the Great

1.4%

Best Supporting Actor

Speaking of transformations, Foster goes through an extreme makeover as well, adding a pot belly and a combover to play the domineering James. (Funnily enough, the actor added on lots of muscle for his own boxing movie a few years ago, Barry Sonnenfeld‘s The Survivor, which premiered at TIFF’s 2021 edition.) In terms of screentime, Foster is more or less on equal footing with Sweeney, which would allow him to submit for Best Actor consideration.

But going the supporting route would be a more successful path to a nomination. During the post-screening Q&A, the actor explicitly framed his role in the film as supporting Martin’s eventual transformation into her more authentic self. “We discussed the subject of domestic violence in depth,” Foster remarked. “We corkscrewed into what is frightfully not Christy’s triumphant career, but those who do struggle at home quietly. It was of the utmost importance [to us] that we honor that as best we could.”

Best Supporting Actress

Merritt Weaver delivers a terrific heel turn as Martin’s hateful mother, a character that regularly earned hisses from the premiere crowd. Already an Emmy-winner — with another statue potentially on the way on Sept. 14 courtesy of Severance — the actress is well-liked within the industry and could translate her small role here into an Oscar nod. But Katy O’Brien also makes the most of her limited screentime as Lisa Holewyne, a rival of Christy’s who ends up becoming something more… much more. O’Brien had a breakout role in Love Lies Bleeding last year, and this part confirms her charismatic presence, not to mention her athletic prowess.

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